Scenario 5: Platforms Report Success, but Business is Flat — Attribution Wars

1. The Situation

• Role: CMO.
• Channels: Running Facebook, Google, and TikTok simultaneously.
• Reports:
  • FB Revenue: $100k (ROAS 4.0)
  • Google Revenue: $80k (ROAS 5.0)
  • TikTok Revenue: $50k (ROAS 3.0)
  • Total Claimed: $230k
• The Truth: Shopify actual revenue is only $120k.
• The Conflict: The CFO points at the bank account: “Why did we spend $60k to get$120k revenue? We are losing money!” Your channel heads are all screaming for more budget.

2. Constraints

1. Double Counting: A user saw FB, searched on Google, and bought. Both FB and Google claim the credit. Platforms are greedy for credit.
2. Risk of Pause: If you assume TikTok is useless and kill it, you might kill the “Assist” source, causing the whole funnel to collapse.
3. Pressure: The CEO demands you cut “ineffective channels” by Monday to lower the MER.

3. Strategy Design

Option A: The Compromise (Mistake)

• Raise ROAS targets for everyone by 50%.
• Prediction: Teams will stop all “Prospecting” ads and only run “Retargeting.” Short-term data looks good; next month, new traffic dies, and business crashes.

Option B: Trust Last Click (Mistake)

• Only look at Google Analytics.
• Prediction: GA says Google Search is king, TikTok is trash. You kill TikTok. Next week, Google search volume disappears. You killed the “Planter” and kept the “Harvester.”

The Correct Strategy: MER + Lift Test

1. North Star Metric: MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio)
   • Formula: Total Revenue / Total Ad Spend.
   • This is the only metric that doesn’t lie.
2. Shock Therapy: Incrementality Test
   • Don’t guess; test. Pick a region (e.g., Canada), keep everything else constant, and Turn OFF TikTok completely for a week.
   • See how much the Total Revenue drops.

4. Simulation

Day 1: The Shut-off

• Action: Turn off TikTok in Canada. Keep FB and Google running.
• Reaction: TikTok rep panics.

Day 7: The Truth

• Phenomenon:
  • Google Brand Search volume in Canada dropped by 30%.
  • Total Shopify Revenue in Canada dropped by 20%.
• Conclusion: Although TikTok claimed $50k (inflated), its True Incrementality is significant. It feeds the top of the funnel.

Day 14: The Reverse Test

• Action: Turn off Google Brand Search in Australia.
• Phenomenon: Total Revenue barely moved. Users just clicked the organic SEO link instead of the ad.
• Conclusion: Google Brand Search spend here is Waste. It is cannibalizing organic traffic.

5. Debrief

1. Data is not the Answer; it’s a Clue: Platform dashboards are “Sales Decks,” not “Audit Reports.” Never trust the person selling you traffic.
2. Don’t use a microscope to view an elephant: In multi-channel games, MER (Macro) beats ROAS (Micro).
3. Attribution is Adjudication: As a leader, you are the Judge. You cannot listen to the Plaintiff (FB) or Defendant (Google). You must look at the evidence (Lift Tests).

The Cold Reality: When you cut Google Brand Search and save $20k, your Google agency will hate you (because that was the easiest money). Being a clear-headed decision-maker is a lonely job.